Real Estate Housing Bubble in 2018?

Has the housing market peaked?

A lot of people have been asking that lately. Especially if you’ve been watching the news a lot. The housing market has declined nationally two percent. Home sales are down over last month and a lot of people are talking about the housing market falling a little bit or are we going into another bubble burst with the real estate market?

Well, consider this. Is 2.2% really a significant decline or is it just the market adjusting a little? Or is it just the fact that we’ve had such low inventory? There’s been a stronger demand for houses and a shortage of houses for sale. So it could be a reason aren’t buying and the number of sales are down is because there’s just not enough houses to choose from.

New Construction Sales Are Up

Also it’s interesting that the sale of new constructions homes in up 7.4%. Which is really good news! There’s still a shortage of new construction homes according to Lawrence Yun, the economist for National Association of Realtors. He’s been saying that all along that there is still not enough new housing starts for the number of buyers that are available and willing and able to buy.

It’s definitely a good sign that new construction is selling and I know that we see in our local area here in Jacksonville a lot of new construction going up especially around the beaches a lot of new houses being built.

Home prices are still up.

That’s good. A lot of people are wondering if it’s going to kind of mellow out a little bit and it may. But it’s still a solid market as of right now. And the number of renters – that was surprising to me – is the same as it was three years ago.

housing bubble chart.jpg

Inventory is Low

Right now we have, in terms of inventory (the way they measure our market), normal inventory is for there to be six to seven months’ supply of houses on the market. Right now we’re still at 4.3 (months’ supply). So we’re still under a balanced market. There’s still a shortage of inventory.

So, yes, it is still a good time to list your house for sale. We’re seeing people interested in listing and selling, even though kids are going back to school. And sometimes people talk about seasonal changes. But there are always people who need to sell their houses. Always people moving throughout the year. So not seeing too much of a shift in that area with the seasons.

But that’s just a quick market update of what’s going on nationally and locally here in Jacksonville.

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